Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information at the Buenos Aires VAAC Developments and Tests to achieve the Initial Operating Capabilities

Abstract

After the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April 2010, there have been great scientific advances to move from the traditional discernible/visible ash criteria towards a quantitative-based criterion depending on concentration thresholds to be able to operate. The advancement of science and user requirements led to the development of a new "Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information" (QVA) service within the International Civil Aviation Organization International Airways Volcano Watch system. The QVA mainly consists of ensemble ash concentration forecasts for “significant eruptions”. To comply with this service, the Buenos Aires VAAC has worked with the FALL3D 8.1 model on the development of an operational ensemble-based forecasting system that meets the initial functional requirements for the grid data. The last advances in the forecasting system will be presented, including the validation of the system against past events and its application in an exercise using the computational facilities at the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC).