Evolution of the ash dispersal forecast system at the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

Highlights

• Volcanic ash transport and dispersion modelling state of the art at Buenos Aires VAAC.
• New generation of volcanic ash forecasts named Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information.
• Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information applied to the eruption of the Ubinas volcano.

Abstract

Volcanic clouds threaten aviation and international collaborative efforts for monitoring and forecasting their dispersion have been in place for almost 30 years under the framework of the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) Program. The 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) play an important role in producing advisories for international civil aviation stakeholders on the presence and forecast of volcanic ash dispersion and transport. The Buenos Aires VAAC, which operates within the Argentinean National Meteorological Service under a regional air navigation agreement, has substantially improved its numerical modelling strategy in recent years. In parallel, the increasing user's demand to navigate in low-contaminated areas based on impact evidence have pushed towards the development of Quantitative Volcanic Ash Information (QVA), which VAACs are starting to provide operationally during 2026 for significant eruptions. QVA consists of new deterministic and probabilistic forecast products based on ash concentration thresholds impacting aircraft operations and air navigation. The Buenos Aires VAAC has developed its first QVA system and this manuscript presents recent progress and its application on a case study. By the end of this decade, it is expected to extend the scope of QVA to all volcanic clouds, increasing its resolution and deprecating the current Volcanic Ash Advisories. Finally, we discuss the future work needed to achieve this objective.